Why Military Takeovers Are Resurfacing in Africa and Why Each Case Remains Distinct

When soldiers seize state television to announce the downfall of a government, it is tempting to view these events as part of a single coup resurgence sweeping the continent. The reality is far more complex. What we are seeing is a patchwork of local grievances, security threats, institutional failures, and geopolitical shifts. From entrenched juntas in the Sahel to isolated and failed bids elsewhere, these interventions share surface similarities but demand country-specific analysis.

Recent years have seen military interventions recur in West and Central Africa, with 2025 adding both successful takeovers and thwarted attempts. Successful coups occurred in Madagascar in October and Guinea-Bissau in November, while an attempted takeover in Benin in early December collapsed within hours. Meanwhile, military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, born of earlier seizures of power, have consolidated their rule with little meaningful progress toward civilian transitions.

Benin’s Failed Coup Attempt: A Symptom of Democratic Erosion

On December 7, 2025, a small group of soldiers led by Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Tigri stormed the state broadcaster in Cotonou, declared President Patrice Talon deposed, and announced the suspension of the constitution. Loyalist forces, backed by Nigerian air support and reportedly assisted by French special forces, crushed the rebellion within hours. Several people were killed during clashes, and dozens of suspected plotters were later arrested.

Benin has long been regarded as a democratic success story in West Africa, but strains have become increasingly visible. The Talon administration has faced sustained criticism for narrowing political competition, disqualifying opposition figures from elections, and presiding over historically low voter turnout. At the same time, jihadist spillover from the Sahel has destabilized the country’s north, while public sector austerity and youth unemployment have deepened frustration.

Unlike in Sahelian cases, the plotters miscalculated both military loyalty and regional resolve. ECOWAS moved quickly to signal zero tolerance for unconstitutional change, while neighboring states provided immediate logistical support. The failed coup demonstrates that stronger institutions, combined with rapid regional intervention, can still block military takeovers even where genuine grievances exist.

The Sahel: Insecurity as Both Trigger and Sustainer

In the central Sahel, the dynamics differ sharply. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger justified their takeovers by citing jihadist violence and the inability of elected governments to deliver security or development. Since then, these regimes have entrenched themselves, delayed transition timelines, and steadily weakened civilian oversight.

In Niger, devastating attacks in Tillabéri during 2024 underscored the scale of the insurgent threat. Public anger over corruption and ineffective leadership initially translated into support for military intervention. Over time, however, prolonged military rule has fused security operations with political control, eroding democratic norms and complicating international engagement. External partners face a persistent dilemma: isolation risks deepening humanitarian crises, while engagement risks legitimising unelected regimes.

Mali: Normalising Military Rule

Mali illustrates how military rule can become routinised. Following coups in 2020 and 2021, the junta has made selective concessions, including diplomatic repositioning and new security partnerships, while retaining firm control over the political system. Over time, international responses have shifted from outright condemnation to pragmatic engagement, driven by sanctions fatigue and the urgency of countering jihadist violence.

This gradual accommodation contrasts with earlier regional efforts to impose isolation and restore civilian authority. It also demonstrates how sustained military control can reshape expectations around legitimacy, particularly when civilian alternatives appear weak or discredited.

Shared Pressures, Divergent Paths

Several pressures recur across these cases, though outcomes differ:

• Persistent security threats: Jihadist insurgencies continue to overwhelm civilian-led responses in fragile border regions.
• Governance deficits and public disillusionment: Elections frequently fail to deliver accountability or material change, breeding apathy or openness to political resets.
• Economic stagnation and youth frustration: High unemployment and inequality intensify impatience with existing systems.
• Geopolitical realignment: Declining French influence and growing Russian engagement in parts of the Sahel are reshaping how coups unfold and how they are received internationally.

In several Francophone states, highly centralised presidential systems and unresolved colonial legacies have made it easier for military actors to frame intervention as corrective. Elsewhere, perceived democratic backsliding has opened space for alternative claims to authority.

Embracing Nuance Over Simplification

Framing these developments as a single continental wave obscures critical differences. Benin’s failed attempt reflected internal political tightening and rapid counter-mobilisation, while Sahelian juntas emerged from prolonged insecurity and have become semi-permanent fixtures. Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 coup, linked to electoral disputes, contrasts sharply with Madagascar’s distinct political dynamics.

A nuanced perspective neither excuses unconstitutional seizures of power nor ignores the structural failures that enable them. The persistent challenge across contexts remains the same: political systems, whether civilian or military, continue to struggle to deliver inclusive, effective, and trusted governance.

Addressing this challenge requires more than condemnation. It demands sustained investment in resilient institutions, credible security sector reform, economic opportunity for young populations, and regional mechanisms such as ECOWAS that can deter or reverse unconstitutional change.

Africa’s political terrain remains fluid. Coups may surge or recede, but the deeper task of building accountable systems with genuine legitimacy endures.