Madagascar’s Fragile Democracy Tested as Military Seizes Power

Madagascar has entered a new period of political uncertainty after the military announced it had taken control of the government, forcing President Andry Rajoelina into hiding. The intervention followed weeks of youth‑led protests over chronic water and electricity shortages, unemployment, corruption, and rising living costs. Military leaders have pledged to form a civilian government and hold elections within two years, but the move has raised questions about the country’s democratic trajectory.

The takeover comes against the backdrop of an Afrobarometer survey conducted in late 2024, which revealed a complex public mood: Malagasy citizens overwhelmingly value democracy, yet many also see military intervention as legitimate when elected leaders abuse power.

A Crisis Years in the Making

President Rajoelina, who first came to power after a 2009 coup and returned through disputed elections in 2019 and 2023, faced mounting criticism for governance failures. Chronic mismanagement at Jirama, the state water and electricity utility, left millions without reliable services. Inflation surged above 9% in 2025, while poverty remained entrenched, with more than 75% of the population living below the poverty line.

By September, protests led largely by young people escalated into nationwide demonstrations. Many accused the government of corruption, cronyism, and indifference to ordinary citizens’ struggles. Calls for Rajoelina’s resignation grew louder, culminating in clashes in Antananarivo earlier this month.

According to reports, the crisis peaked when Rajoelina attempted to dissolve parliament to block impeachment proceedings. That move was widely condemned as unconstitutional and deepened divisions within the security forces. On October 12, a key army unit entered the capital, effectively ending Rajoelina’s rule.

Public Opinion: Democracy Valued, But Military Seen as a Check

Afrobarometer’s nationally representative survey of 1,200 Malagasy adults, conducted in October–November 2024, sheds light on how citizens view governance and the role of the military.

• 53% said they prefer democracy over any other system of government.
• 64% rejected military rule outright.
• Yet 60% agreed it is legitimate for the armed forces to intervene if elected leaders abuse power.
• In the event of a coup, 45% said civilian rule should be restored immediately, while 35% favored a gradual transition and 20% supported military rule “as long as necessary.”

These findings highlight a paradox: while most Malagasy oppose military rule in principle, many are willing to accept it as a corrective measure when governance collapses.

Military Promises and Public Expectations

In their first statements, military leaders pledged to establish a civilian transitional government and organize elections within two years. They also promised to address corruption, restore essential services, and stabilize the economy.

For many citizens, these promises resonate with frustrations that fueled the protests. Yet skepticism remains high. Madagascar has a history of military interventions and contested transitions, and previous promises of reform have often gone unfulfilled.

Observers note that the military’s ability to deliver on its commitments will depend on whether it can maintain unity, avoid repression, and engage with civil society. International partners, including the African Union and regional blocs, are expected to press for a clear timetable and credible electoral process.

Regional and International Reactions

The African Union has expressed concern, reiterating its opposition to unconstitutional changes of government but also calling for dialogue to restore stability. Neighboring countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are monitoring developments closely, wary of potential spillover effects.

International donors, who provide significant aid to Madagascar, have urged restraint and respect for human rights. The country’s fragile economy, heavily reliant on vanilla exports and mining, could face further strain if sanctions or aid suspensions are imposed.

A Nation at a Crossroads

Madagascar’s political institutions have long been fragile. The disputed 2023 election undermined Rajoelina’s legitimacy, while parliament and the judiciary struggled to act as effective checks on executive power. The military’s intervention underscores both the weakness of civilian institutions and the enduring influence of the armed forces in Malagasy politics.

For ordinary citizens, the immediate concern remains daily survival. Rising food prices, unreliable electricity, and limited job opportunities have fueled discontent for years. The protests that toppled Rajoelina were as much about livelihoods as they were about politics.

The Afrobarometer survey suggests that while citizens want democracy, they are also pragmatic: if leaders fail to deliver, they are willing to tolerate military intervention as a temporary solution. Whether this latest takeover leads to a genuine transition or entrenches military influence will depend on how the next two years unfold.

Looking Ahead

If the military honors its pledge, Madagascar could see elections by 2027. But the path forward is uncertain. Restoring trust in institutions, addressing corruption, and improving basic services will be critical to stabilizing the country.

For now, Madagascar stands at a crossroads. The military’s intervention reflects both the failures of the past decade and the aspirations of a population eager for change. The challenge will be ensuring that this moment of upheaval leads not to deeper instability, but to a more accountable and resilient democracy.