Africa’s Rising Oil Demand and the Call for Realistic Energy Pathways

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 30, 2025 — Africa’s role in global energy demand is set to expand sharply, with the continent projected to add millions of barrels per day in oil consumption and refining capacity by 2050. Speaking at African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies 2025, officials from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stressed that meeting this demand will require trillions in investment and pragmatic energy strategies.

Africa’s Growing Energy Role

Presenting the findings of OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook, Dr. Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Study Department, noted that global primary energy demand is expected to rise by 23% by 2050, with non‑OECD countries driving nearly three‑quarters of that growth. Africa alone is forecast to add 4.2 million barrels per day in oil demand and contribute 3 million barrels per day in refining capacity.

“There are no signs of global oil demand peaking anytime soon,” Benyoucef said. “Africa will need more energy for economic development — not just electricity, but also clean cooking access, health, and education. LPG is one of the solutions.”

Investment and Technology Needs

OPEC projects that $18.2 trillion in cumulative global energy investment will be required by 2050, including $14.9 trillion for upstream oil and gas projects. Officials emphasized that while oil will remain the largest share of the energy mix, natural gas is set to overtake coal as the second‑largest source.

Benyoucef underscored the importance of scaling up carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to balance energy growth with emissions reduction.

Global Context and Risks

Dr. Sulaiman Saad, Senior Oil Demand Analyst, highlighted macroeconomic drivers: “The global economy is becoming more resilient — China, the U.S., and India are pushing this momentum of growth.” He cautioned, however, that rising sovereign debt, supply chain fragmentation, and uneven industrial recovery remain challenges.

Refining Shifts to Developing Economies

On the downstream side, Mohammed Attaba, Senior Downstream Oil Industry Analyst, noted that refining growth is migrating toward developing regions.

“The largest share of refining additions will take place in developing economies. This shift from developed to developing countries has been underway for years and will continue,” he said.

Balancing Growth and Sustainability

The session concluded that Africa’s rising energy demand is both a challenge and an opportunity. With targeted investment, realistic pathways, and technology adoption, the continent can meet its development priorities while contributing significantly to global energy security.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.