Bitter and Sweet – Cocoa’s Crisis and East Africa’s Economic Surge

In West Africa’s cocoa belt, farmers are staring down a perfect storm: volatile prices, erratic weather, and chronic underinvestment. Thousands of kilometres away, East Africa is telling a different story — one of near‑6% growth, diversified economies, and rising investor confidence. The contrast is a snapshot of Africa’s uneven economic fortunes in 2025.

Cocoa’s Crunch Time

West Africa produces nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa, with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria at the forefront. Yet smallholder farmers in these countries are grappling with chronic underpayment, volatile markets, and limited access to financing, according to Africanews Business Africa.

Olasunkanmi Owoyemi, Managing Director at SGC–SunBeth Global Concepts, says the biggest challenge remains access to affordable credit:

“Without financing, farmers can’t invest in better tools, practices, or even proper storage, which impacts quality and income.”

Sustainability concerns persist, with child labour and gender inequality still widespread in cocoa‑producing communities. Climate change is compounding the crisis, bringing heavier rains, prolonged dry spells, and pest outbreaks that slash yields.

Price Paradox

Global cocoa prices have surged to record highs due to supply shortages, but many farmers are unable to benefit. Poor harvests mean they have less to sell, and without storage or bargaining power, they often offload beans at low prices to middlemen.

The result: a sector that is both strategically vital to global confectionery and structurally fragile for those who grow its raw material.

East Africa’s Growth Story

While cocoa struggles, East Africa is on track for 5.9% GDP growth in 2025, outpacing the continental average of 4%. Countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania are driving the surge through:

• Infrastructure and energy investment
• Booming tech, fintech, and tourism sectors
• Improved regional trade via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

Policy consistency, public‑private partnerships, and macroeconomic stability are helping the region defy global headwinds.

Diversification as Insurance

Economists say East Africa’s resilience underscores the importance of economic diversification. While West African economies heavily reliant on cocoa face shocks from a single commodity, East African nations with broader economic bases are better positioned to weather global market fluctuations.

Trade and the AfCFTA Factor

The AfCFTA is opening new intra‑African trade corridors. For East Africa, this means more markets for manufactured goods, services, and agricultural exports beyond traditional partners. For West Africa’s cocoa sector, it could mean opportunities to process more beans locally and sell chocolate products within Africa — capturing more value at home.

What Needs Attention

A deeper investigation could explore:

• Financing models that give cocoa farmers more control over pricing and storage.
• How East Africa’s policy frameworks could be adapted in commodity‑dependent economies.
• The role of climate adaptation in both regions’ agricultural strategies.
• Whether AfCFTA can realistically rebalance Africa’s commodity vs. diversified growth divide.

Cocoa vs. East Africa — Key Stats (2025)